Updates to Terms of business and Privacy Policy ×

WHO WE ARE

We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 17 February 2025

Peace & Tariffs

US President Donald Trump has initiated direct peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This move has raised concerns among European and Ukrainian officials, who fear that Ukraine might be compelled to cede territory without adequate security guarantees.

Ukrainian President Zelensky insists on being included in peace negotiations and is coordinating with the US to develop a unified strategy before engaging directly with Putin. The proposed peace deal could involve Ukraine giving up claims to certain territories and accepting a neutral status, while Europe would assume a more significant role in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and security.

There could be two main outcomes from these negotiations; the first clearly favouring Russia, and a second one more palatable for Ukraine that could also bring sustainable peace. However, as things currently stand, it looks like that the former has a higher chance of success.

Firstly, talks are kicking off bilaterally between teams from the US and Russia, while Ukraine’s role in the process remains unclear. This could be interpreted that Ukraine, after all, doesn’t have a say on its future. Also, US officials have already said that it would be unrealistic for Ukraine to demand restoration of pre-2014 borders or hope for a NATO membership, making de facto concessions to Russia before talks have even started, and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, who has made some critical comments in the past, seems to have been sidelined as he will not be part of the US negotiating team.

Furthermore, the faster the talks proceed, the higher the likelihood of a deal favouring Russia; after all Putin is in no hurry to stop the war. This is despite Russia’s personnel losses towards the end of last year exceeding its pace of new recruits, and while the current level of intensity is not sustainable without a new round of mobilisation, Russia could well continue the war at a lower intensity for a long time still. Since, Russia is under no imminent pressure to end the war; an immediate ceasefire would signal that it has been promised sweeteners, such as sanctions relief. On the other hand, an acceptable deal is still possible, but it requires a rapid, strong and coordinated response by European states to the US-led initiative.

Trump also announced reciprocal tariffs last week, whereby the US aims to match any foreign tariffs, but determines the exact level on a country-by-country basis. The tariffs should come into effect on 1 April, but given Trump’s recent track record, the date may also be delayed upon negotiations.

For now, details remain very unclear; whether tariffs will target all countries globally, which goods will be affected and how immediate this will be. The announcement triggered a risk-off reaction across markets – particularly in Europe, where the auto industry is likely to be the targeted. For now, the base case is still the same: further tariffs on China, on the European car industry, and on critical imports, such as tech and pharma.

Elsewhere, underlying inflation continues to moderate both in the Euro Area and in the US. Inflation pressures have been easing gradually with weak goods inflation and, in the case of the US, a more balanced job market. In the eurozone, wage growth remains elevated but is also now cooling. Inflation expectations have remained relatively steady and close to the 2 per cent target despite the trade uncertainty. US consumers' short-term inflation expectations rose sharply in the latest University of Michigan survey, although alternative measures remain well-behaved.

US CPI inflation surprised strongly to the upside last Wednesday, showing a similar pattern as previous Januarys amid seasonal distortions. Core CPI printed at 45 basis points m-o-m and super-core inflation at 76 basis points m-o-m, which on a three-month average annualise to 3.9 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively. The PPI components feeding into PCE inflation were negative however, so that core PCE inflation is expected to rise at a more moderate pace of around 30 basis points m-o-m, annualising to 2.3 per cent on the three-month average. The pattern in 2024 was very similar, with inflation across categories rising strongly on seasonal effects, raising a debate over the likelihood of further hikes. The difference this year is that inflation expectations are on the rise under Trump anyway, so that a seasonal uptick in Q1 inflation poses a much bigger headache. It will take several prints to confirm if this January was truly seasonally-driven again or not, but the bar for the Fed to hike looks still high, for now.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, inflation rose to 2.5 per cent y-o-y in January, slightly above expectations, and up from 2.4 per cent in December, driven by sharply higher energy costs. Core inflation remained stable at 2.7 per cent, with services inflation persistently high at 3.9 per cent y-o-y. The monthly price increase in services inflation was around 0.30 per cent m-o-m, so slightly to the higher side. However, as many services prices are only adjusted in January, January's data offers modest relief to the ECB, as the ongoing softer momentum in underlying inflation continued. The figures align with ECB President Lagarde's view that inflation may fluctuate due to energy prices while slowing toward the 2 per cent target as underlying inflation continues to ease.



Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Carbon

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

    Contact: Stuart Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44 (0)20 3142 0144

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

    Contact: Stuart Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44 (0)20 3142 0144

Click here for our terms of business

Our locations


  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3V 4AB

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info

    LONDON

    Carbon Dry Cargo Finance LNG Newbuilding Research S & P Tankers Valuations


    Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3V 4AB

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info


  • Affinity Shipping DMCC
    5A Gold Tower
    Cluster I
    Jumeriah Lake Towers (JLT)
    Dubai, UAE


    T +97140 570 8661

    View full office info

    DUBAI

    Dry Cargo LNG


    Affinity Shipping DMCC
    5A Gold Tower
    Cluster I
    Jumeriah Lake Towers (JLT)
    Dubai, UAE


    T +97140 570 8661

    View full office info


  • 72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info

    SINGAPORE

    Dry Cargo LNG S & P Tankers


    72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info


  • 8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info

    PERTH

    Dry Cargo


    8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info


  • Suite 3.05, Level 3
    9-11 Claremont Street
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141, Australia


    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info

    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Suite 3.05, Level 3
    9-11 Claremont Street
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141, Australia


    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info


  • 1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info

    SYDNEY

    Dry Cargo


    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info


  • 7/455 Brunswick St
    Fortitude Valley
    Brisbane
    QLD 4006


    View full office info

    BRISBANE

    Dry Cargo


    7/455 Brunswick St
    Fortitude Valley
    Brisbane
    QLD 4006


    View full office info


  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info

    SEOUL

    LNG Newbuilding S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info

    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • 6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info

    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • Room 1004, 10/F, The Crest
    No 500 West Yan An Road,
    Shanghai, 200050
    People’s Republic of China


    View full office info

    SHANGHAI

    Dry Cargo


    Room 1004, 10/F, The Crest
    No 500 West Yan An Road,
    Shanghai, 200050
    People’s Republic of China


    View full office info


  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info


  • Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


    View full office info

    ROTTERDAM

    Dry Cargo


    Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


    View full office info


  • Cort Adelers gate 16
    0254 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info

    OSLO

    Offshore


    Cort Adelers gate 16
    0254 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info


  • 1780-355 Burrard St
    Vancouver
    BC V6C 2G8
    Canada


    View full office info

    VANCOUVER

    Dry Cargo


    1780-355 Burrard St
    Vancouver
    BC V6C 2G8
    Canada


    View full office info


  • Rua Duque Estrada 36/101 Rio de Janeiro, 22451-090, Brazil

    View full office info

    RIO DE JANEIRO


    Rua Duque Estrada 36/101 Rio de Janeiro, 22451-090, Brazil

    View full office info


  • 501 5th Ave, New York, NY 10017, USA

    View full office info

    NEW YORK

    Dry Cargo


    501 5th Ave, New York, NY 10017, USA

    View full office info


  • 2 Princes Street
    Auckland
    New Zealand

    T +64 27 240 7129

    View full office info

    AUCKLAND

    Dry Cargo


    2 Princes Street
    Auckland
    New Zealand

    T +64 27 240 7129

    View full office info