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It's A Deal!
Trump signs first post-Liberation Day trade pact with the UK, while talks with China remain ongoing.
A month has now passed since Trump paused most of his sweeping ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs to bring countries round the table to renegotiate their trade terms with the US. This week saw the first such deal, with the UK.
Both sides have naturally hailed the agreement as ‘historic’, and certainly UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, fresh off the back of a comprehensive trade deal London agreed with New Delhi last week, is keen to big up the deal. That the UK has been first off the bat to secure a deal with Trump is likely less down to the supposed Anglo-American ‘special relationship’, but more down to the UK’s very small trade surplus with Washington, as well as London’s lack of threatened retaliation after ‘Liberation Day’. Whatever the motivation though, the agreement is clearly good news, both for the UK government, which scores a political win, as well as more broadly in showing that Trump is serious about making deals.
Under the agreement, the UK has secured a major concession on autos, with the first 100,000 cars sold to the US facing a 10 per cent tariff, as opposed to an effective 27.5 per cent tariff rate before the deal. This quota accounts for almost all the vehicles Britain sold to the US last year, and so this lower tariff rate offers welcome reprieve from the ‘severe and immediate’ threat higher tariffs posed. Luxury British carmakers like Jaguar Land Rover, Bentley, and McLaren – none of which have any manufacturing footprint in the US – had warned of the highly negative consequences the car industry would face absent a deal, and so have welcomed the agreement as offering ‘significant progress’ in offering certainty on investment. Cars more broadly are the biggest single UK export item to the US, with sales totalling GBP 6.4 Bn, and so this exemption from the harshest tariffs, while not perfect, is a definite positive for the sector. Elsewhere, 25 per cent US tariffs on British steel exports have been eliminated, and UK beef farmers have been given a first-ever tariff free quota of 13,000 T of exports to the US. In exchange, Britain’s 19 per cent tariffs on US ethanol will fall to zero through a 1.4 Bn litre quota, and Washington is also keen to step up US agricultural exports to Britain, citing a USD 250 Mn opportunity.
It's important to emphasise that this isn’t a full-blown free trade deal, but rather a more sector-specific agreement to avoid the worst excesses of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. While London will still have to have to wait for this much-anticipated agreement, it can at least take succour from the intactness of its ‘red lines’. Britain has not had to alter its food standards nor water down its Digital Services Tax, and the NHS remains ‘off the table’. These issues can all be left for another day.
Some have pointed out, however, that for all the fawning over this ‘historic’ agreement, the UK is in a worse position vis-à-vis US tariffs than it was on 1 April. Aside from the reprieve on cars, steel, and beef, all other British exports to the US are subject to a 10 per cent ‘baseline’ tariff, despite Britain cutting its average tariff on US goods from 5.1 per cent to 1.8 per cent. That said, the rules of the game have been changed for everyone – not just the UK – and so in securing a deal with Washington, Britain holds a competitive advantage. Other countries will be looking at Britain’s deal closely to assess their own next moves when it comes to dealing with Trump. Yet, whether they will be successful remains a different story, as Trump has pledged that other trading partners could face much higher final tariffs on account of their trade deficits with the US.
One trade partner we can presumably count in this category is China. Both sides have realised the current status quo is unsustainable, and met in Geneva last weekend to hammer out some form of agreement, although talks remain underway. Somewhat ironically, Chinese exports to the US rose 8.1 per cent year-on-year in April as businesses rushed to import stock ahead of tariffs, but it’s clear that tariffs are starting to bite. While Chinese exports to Southeast Asian countries rose 20.8 per cent last month, exports to the US fell 21 per cent, causing its trade surplus to fall by USD 7.1 Bn. This may have helped further Trump’s goal of reducing the American trade deficit with China, but as higher consumer prices beckon at home, de-escalation was going to have to happen.
A Sino-American deal would of course be far more significant to the global economy than a US-UK agreement, but it’s almost impossible that China – so long the focus of Trump’s rage – will be given anything like as generous terms as the UK. Indeed, on Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that an 80 per sent tariff against China “seems right”, although the subsequent slash to 30 per cent for 90 days gives insight into Trump’s negotiating. But China still holds key cards, such as a virtual monopoly on rare earth processing, as well as greater diplomatic leverage with the rest of the world as a fellow victim of Trump’s tariffs, so it could still stand stronger to drive a harder bargain.
As we’ve entered this new dealmaking phase of Trump’s tariff regime, it’s become ever clearer that the old norms of international trade have gone and are not coming back. We’ve just got to buckle up and enjoy the ride.
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Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
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Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
+56 99 887 3036
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Charlestest Chasty
[email protected]
+44 (0)20 3142 0185
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
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