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Affinity Policy Comment 02 June 2025

Reduced To Rust

US-China trade tensions on the up as both sides call foul, and steel tariffs set to double.

Things were looking up for US-China trade over the past month. Following early May’s talks in Geneva, in which Washington slashed its 145 per cent tariffs to 30 per cent – and China cut US tariffs from 125 to 10 per cent, a thawing of relations certainly seemed on the cards, in a much-welcomed development by consumers and businesses on both sides of the Pacific. Yet for all the excitement about the deal, tensions and disagreements were far from vanquished entirely, and events over the past week may threaten to raise the temperature back up.

On Friday, Trump took to Truth Social to accuse Beijing of violating the terms of the truce, and was subsequently backed up by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who argued China had been too slow in removing non-tariff countermeasures, including restrictions on rare earth magnet exports, and blacklists of US companies. Given their electronics, semiconductor, and defence applications, rare earth mineral access has been especially critical for Washington, having been restricted by Beijing in the immediate aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the slowdown in rare earth shipments could either be intentional or “a glitch in the Chinese system”, but whatever the cause, he maintained that China was withholding shipments of materials critical for not just US industry, but for other economies like India and Europe. In turn, China dubbed Trump’s accusations ‘groundless’ and has accused the US of “seriously violating” the agreement, citing warnings against the use of Huawei chips globally, curbs on selling chip design software to Chinese companies, and the cancelling of Chinese students’ US visas. Beijing has also threatened to take “strong and resolute measures” to protect its interests, although specific details of what this could look like were lacking.

Thankfully, there’s little sign that the high tariff rates of April will return, and indeed Trump emphasised his desire to iron out the disagreements with Xi rather than immediately resorting to further tariff escalation. Still though, with each side accusing the other of violating the agreement, and with neither prepared to ‘chicken out’ and back down, the signs aren’t good, and fuel understandable concerns that trade barriers are making another comeback.

Free traders could cling to a glimmer of hope this week, as the US Court of International Trade found on Wednesday that Trump did not have the authority to impose sweeping ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs by using emergency powers. Yet barely a day later, the ruling was paused on Thursday by a Federal Appeals court, and the White House – which characterised the initial decision as judicial overreach - has vowed to challenge the ruling in the Supreme Court. At the time of writing, a judgement remains pending, though with Trump’s trade policy falling foul of this initial legal hurdle, some might expect the White House should proceed with a tad more restraint.

Yet unfortunately, ‘should’ and ‘will’ are entirely different kettles of fish, as despite the trade court’s judgement, Trump has hardly shied away from threatening tariffs elsewhere. Whilst China – Washington’s major strategic rival – is a logical target for harsh tariffs, nominal American allies have not been spared from duties. On Friday, Trump vowed to double steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 per cent, with the new duties to come into force by 4 June, and among the loudest howls of discontent have been from countries on ‘Team USA’. Canada is the largest exporter of both steel and aluminium to the US, accounting for around 25 per cent of Washington’s 2023 steel imports and half of 2024 aluminium imports, and is set to face particular pain. The Canadian Steel Producers Association labelled the 50 per cent tariffs ‘catastrophic’ and warned of job losses and supply chain disruption as a result. It’s not just Canada that’s in trouble but other allied nations too; the Director General of UK Steel slammed the tariffs as “yet another body blow” and shares in South Korean steelmakers POSCO and Hyundai Steel both saw 3 per cent share price falls following the tariff announcement. These higher steel and aluminium tariffs are yet another sign that ‘America First’ means what it says on the tin, although hardly one that will endear Uncle Sam to allies.

With the tariff threat resurfacing, another dose of uncertainty has been injected back into the global economy, and markets are responding accordingly. Gold prices rose 1.7 per cent to USD 3,344.49 an ounce on Monday, and the dollar index fell 0.6 per cent against its rivals. Whilst it’s certainly true that other factors, such as escalating hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, have played a role, the shaky relationship between the US and China can only be supportive for gold prices. Meanwhile, with the US the locus of global economic uncertainties, the traditional ‘safe haven’ of the dollar now looks less attractive than before. Ultimately as the political wranglings rage on, markets are pricing in uncertainty for the longer haul. We’re far from out of the woods, then, on the tariff threat to the global economy.

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    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

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    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

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    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

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    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
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    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Charlestest Chasty
    [email protected]
    +44 (0)20 3142 0185

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

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