Iran Ceasefire, US Tariffs, and LNG Market Uncertainty
This edition covers the fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, the reintroduction of US tariffs and their impact on global trade and oil demand, and the ongoing uncertainty in the LNG market driven by Qatari disruptions and European storage concerns.
No Strait Answer
Lull in Iran conflict offers reasons to celebrate but poses longer-term trouble.
It has been another whirlwind of a week in Iran. The 60-day ceasefire extended on 17 June had all but broken down as Iran attacked ships transiting the “southern corridor” on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Washington to launch retaliatory strikes. Temperatures continued to rise as Iran fired missiles and drones at US bases across the Middle East, and the US reimposed its blockade of Iran and rescinded a waiver allowing Tehran to sell oil. Each action only ratcheted up tensions further, and with attacks ongoing for two weeks straight, a return to full-blown conflict seemed scarily close.
Congressional Pushback
Trump might have been willing to escalate in the face of Iranian actions, but Washington is not united behind the war. On Thursday, the US House of Representatives voted 214-208 to invoke the War Powers Resolution, ordering Trump to cease further military action without Congressional approval.…
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