Our Alternative Fuel Tracker shows a fleet still leaning heavily on scrubbers rather than alternative fuels: 11.4 per cent of the trading fleet is scrubber-fitted against just 3.0 per cent alt-fuel capable. Scrubber penetration is deepest in containers (27.5 per cent) and dry bulk (17.3 per cent), with tankers at 10.7 per cent, LPG at 10.8 per cent and LNG at 2.7 per cent. Alt-fuel tonnage in service is concentrated almost entirely in gas carriers – LNG carriers at 73.9 per cent and LPG at 12.4 per cent – with RoRo (6.5 per cent) and containers (5.7 per cent) some way behind and dry bulk effectively absent at 0.5 per cent.
The orderbook tells the opposite story, with alt-fuel share (21.0 per cent) now overtaking scrubbers (18.9 per cent). Alternative fuels dominate ordering in LNG (96 per cent), LPG (60 per cent), RoRo (51 per cent) and containers (35 per cent), whereas dry bulk (4.2 per cent) and tankers (4.6 per cent) still lag badly. Scrubber ordering meanwhile stays concentrated in tankers, at 39.6 per cent of the tanker orderbook and as high as 90.7 per cent for VLCCs and 74.5 per cent for LR1s, plus 22.2 per cent in dry bulk, while container scrubber ordering has fallen away to 14.1 per cent.
The age profile confirms this is a newbuild-driven shift. Scrubber fitting peaks in the 0-5 year (21.8 per cent) and 6-10 year (21.7 per cent) cohorts and tapers to around 1 per cent for ships over 25 years, while alternative fuels appear almost exclusively in the youngest tonnage – 15.8 per cent of 0-5 year vessels, 4.5 per cent at 6-10 years and close to nil beyond 15 years. In short, scrubbers remain the incumbent compliance route, particularly for tankers and larger bulkers, but new ordering has clearly crossed over to alternative fuels, led by LNG with methanol a distant second, and dry bulk is the standout laggard on both fronts.