China Dry Cargo Signals: August 2026

The Affinity China Dry Index for June 2026 stands at 110, reflecting a 10 per cent increase from January 2022, albeit a 1 per cent decline month-on-month, as falling imports and steel production weigh on the market. Notably, July saw a 6 per cent drop in iron ore imports compared to June, although overall imports are up 1 per cent year-on-year, with domestic output decreasing by 7 per cent in H1 2026. Meanwhile, coal imports decreased by 8 per cent month-on-month while thermal coal imports surged to a 2026 high due to rising demand and limited domestic supply. Trade barriers are imposing challenges on steel exports, yet consumption is projected to rise by 3.3 per cent year-on-year, supported by manufacturing sector growth amid restrictions. This complex interplay of factors indicates a cautious outlook for China's dry bulk markets as they navigate recovery dynamics and external pressures.