Macro Topics Note 11 May 2026

11 May 2026
Drafting the Markets
Macro Topics Note

Tensions in the Middle East are escalating once again, as Tehran rejected the US proposal for a framework around which to negotiate an end to the war. Oil prices are back on the move, with Brent reaching USD 105.50 per barrel amid the breakdown in negotiations.

The deadlock threatens global supply chains, impacting energy, agricultural markets, and economic growth forecasts. Notably, in the agricultural sector, US farmers are facing severe financial challenges due to rising input costs and trade disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, leading to increased bankruptcies and potential changes in domestic production dynamics.

In the LNG space, while a Qatari LNG vessel successfully transited the volatile Strait of Hormuz, signalling cautious optimism, broader supplies remain constrained, underscoring the fragility of global energy markets.

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