Macro Topics Note 13 July 2026

Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran have escalated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping and oil prices. Following missile strikes and claims of a resumed ceasefire, the Strait officially remains closed, leading to a rise in Brent crude to USD 79.21 while limiting vessel transits. Simultaneously, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is disrupting grain exports, pushing wheat prices up to a six-week high due to halted shipping through critical waterways. The interlinked dynamics of conflict and market responses underline the fragility of supply chains and commodity stability amidst geopolitical uncertainties.