Macro Topics Note 29 June 2026

29 June 2026
Drafting the Markets
Macro Topics Note

Keir Starmer’s resignation triggers a likely smooth transition to Andy Burnham as UK Prime Minister, with markets cautious but stable as he outlines decentralisation and moderate economic policies.

Oil prices have fluctuated sharply due to repeated escalations and de-escalations in US - Iran tensions, with the markets reacting to uncertainty around ceasefire progress and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

The Panama Canal expects stable operations through 2026 but warns that a strong El Niño could reduce capacity and increase global shipping costs in 2027.

Europe faces elevated winter gas price risks due to historically low storage levels, weak replenishment, and ongoing supply disruptions despite manageable short-term conditions.

Container freight rates are surging due to front-loading and geopolitical disruptions, but long-term fundamentals point to oversupply and weaker demand.

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