Oil prices fell for the first time in a month, though they remain historically elevated. Brent slipped to a near-two-week low of USD 97.60 per barrel before settling at USD 98.93 per barrel, while WTI fell to USD 90.53. The pullback followed news that Saudi Arabia sold roughly 60 Mn barrels via STS transfer at Sohar, lifting September export volumes above August's, and confirmation that the East-West pipeline reopened on Tuesday. Optimism was also boosted by the UN General Assembly, where a possible Trump–Pezeshkian meeting raised hopes of de-escalation. However, renewed US and Iranian threats, continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and falling Strait of Hormuz transit volumes point to further price pressure, in line with the IEA's outlook.
Goldman Sachs now favours gasoline over diesel as refiners shift output toward diesel amid Russia's extended export restrictions; it recommends a long European gasoline position into mid-2027. Energy Aspects flagged a looming Q4 European jet fuel deficit of 510,000 bpd despite record South Korean imports, with ARA product stocks at seven-year lows. On consumption, the IEA's 18 September report warned that continued Gulf disruptions and inventory depletion may require further demand destruction. Global demand has averaged 5.8 Mn bpd below February levels over six months, led by China, while stocks have drawn at a record 2.8 Mn bpd, with IEA members releasing over 300 Mn barrels of reserves. Downstream, the Petroleum Association of Japan said that crude supplies would last through November, aided by ship-to-ship transfers and stockpile releases, offering some relief despite disrupted Hormuz flows.