Oil prices posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in October, with Brent settling at USD 117.64 per barrel after a limpet-mine strike on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of escalation after the US midterm elections. Prices fell sharply on Monday as Iranian and US officials signalled progress towards a negotiated settlement, leaving Brent at USD 103.30 and WTI at USD 95.89 per barrel, respectively. Goldman Sachs and UBS nonetheless raised their Brent end-of-year forecasts.
OPEC+ held December output targets steady for the third straight time, while Europe announced a 42 Mn-barrel reserve release. On demand, TotalEnergies and Vitol issued gloomy outlooks, with Vitol expecting a fall of about 3 Mn bpd in 2026. Downstream, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries continued unabated, keeping October CPP exports at just 62 per cent of last October's levels.