Crude oil and product tanker markets have diverged significantly following the onset of the Iran war, with crude tanker tonne-miles growing year-on-year for the first time in July. Suezmax and Aframax tonne-miles gained traction from alternate crude supply routes in the Americas and Black Sea amid ongoing disruptions.
Conversely, product tanker tonne-miles have largely faced severe declines, plummeting 24 per cent year-on-year in July, driven by continued losses in the Arabian Gulf and a lack of rerouted volumes.
Estimates indicate a loss of 5 Mn bpd in global refinery capacity, impacting LR2 and LR1 tonne-miles severely, with declines of 54 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. As regional tensions persist, the outlook suggests a continued strain on product tanker volumes, while Suezmax and Aframax fleets may benefit from alternate crude supplier dynamics.