US China Trade Deal

US dry bulk exports to China have plummeted 60 per cent since 2022, with only 21.0 Mn T anticipated in 2026, marking a continued decline from 52.9 Mn T in 2022. Despite this downturn, a recent trade deal valued at approximately USD 30 Bn aims to reduce tariffs on both sides, potentially facilitating increased trade. Grain and oilseed exports rebounded dramatically by 170 per cent year-on-year to 16.6 Mn T in 2026, attributed to lower trade barriers and restored US export programs. Notably, US coal exports have declined 94 per cent since 2024, yet with tariff reductions in the new agreement, China is expected to purchase at least 10 Mn T of coal from the US in 2027 and 2028, which could encourage a recovery in this segment. Overall, while short-term gains are promising, the durability of these trends hinges on various factors including US crop yields, Chinese demand, and the competitive landscape with suppliers from Australia and Indonesia.