Earnings on the TD3C route have reached an extraordinary USD 209,000 per day, making this the strongest VLCC freight environment since late 2007. Yet, unlike the brief 2019 spike, today’s rally is supported by more durable fundamentals.
Strong demand is a key driver. OPEC+ export steadiness, a year‑on‑year increase in February AG VLCC stems, record Chinese crude import levels, and shifting trade flows, including India’s record VLCC‑borne crude in January, have strained vessel availability. The reduction in sanctioned tonnage use, combined with China’s shift away from opaque trades, has further tightened the market.
Geopolitics amplify the market’s firmness. Tensions in the Middle East, including threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz and limited progress in US–Iran talks, have injected a risk premium into freight.